What is EV in sports betting?
EV means expected value. It summarizes the theoretical return of a decision if a similar situation could be repeated many times under an accurate probability estimate.
Basic formula
With decimal odds, a simple formula is: EV = (estimated probability × odds) − 1.
Example: estimated probability 70% and odds 1.60. EV = 0.70 × 1.60 − 1 = +0.12, or +12% theoretical expected value.
What positive EV means
Positive EV suggests that the available price is above break-even according to the probability estimate. It does not mean the next selection will win.
Negative EV
If EV is negative, the available price would not compensate for the risk under that estimate. A high probability can still have negative EV when odds are too short.
EV and edge are not identical
Edge describes a difference between probabilities. EV incorporates the price directly and expresses theoretical expected return. They are related but not interchangeable.
How SignalXI uses EV
SignalXI combines EV with other filters. Positive EV alone is not enough: probability quality, odds, context and data availability also matter.
Next: implied probability →